Across our ecosystem, the ‘war for talent’ conversation maunders on. My inbox is filled with breathless reports about skill shortages, the great reshuffle, and generational hiring woes.
But that conversation is old. The war is changing, and a new battleground is something far more brutal and fascinating.
We’ve entered a new phase of the talent market, one driven not by open combat but by a quiet, strategic consolidation. I call it the ‘cartel’: (definition, an unspoken agreement among organisations that join together to benefit themselves).
The new founders, engineers, and execs who built the last wave of successes hiring from within their tight, high-trust network.
The ex-Unicorn mafia’s interlinked network.
The data from 2025 is like a Rorschach test. The REOS Jobs and Skills Australia report says that hiring is getting “easier,” whilst an Indeed report notes that competition is still highly elevated.
The reality is, amongst the top eschalon of employers – the talent pool might be getting bigger, but the talent bar is rising so fast it’s left most of the pool treading water.
The new titans, the startups founded by the ex-unicorn “mafia” I’ve been talking about, aren’t hiring from the open market. They’re hiring from their network. And they’re not just looking for skills—they’re looking for something far more valuable: trust.
Cartel Trend #1: Back-Channeling
The old, checklist-style reference check is a joke. It’s a theatrical exercise where two people who have pre-agreed on the script say nice things about each other. A dated formality.
The new game (something we’ve been encouraging for years) is ‘back-channeling’. This isn’t a polite chat; it’s a form of intelligence gathering. You’re not calling the person the candidate gave you; you’re calling the people you trust, likely within your extended network, to ask “What’s the real story with this person?”
You want to know about their work ethic, their character under pressure, and the stuff that never makes it into a LinkedIn recommendation.
This trend is a direct result of the rising talent bar.
The stakes are too high to afford a bad hire. The cost isn’t just a salary; it’s a wasted six months, lost market momentum, and a culture poisoned by a bad seed. In this current market, either of those failures is unacceptable. Back-channeling is the new way to get a deep read on a candidate’s long-term value.
Cartel Trend #2: Face-to-Face
Startups & Scaleups are increasing their in-person hiring and in-office attendance requirements.
Why?
Proximity fosters trust, rapid-fire collaboration, and the kind of deep, shared experience that is difficult to replicate over Zoom. They need to be in-person in order to move at speed.
And it’s not all just about output; it’s about building a human capital network that can power all of the benefits we know of, and crucially, trust.
Their interview process has evolved from a Q&A session into a full-blown audition. No Zoom calls, they are all in-person, including the final round; a half/full/multi day work trial.
Yes, they’re vetting skills. But much more, they are testing a candidate’s emotional intelligence, resilience under pressure, and their ability to function within the team’s orbit. It’s a due diligence process for a high-yield asset: human chemistry.
Think of it like a VC investment. You don’t just invest in a company’s financial model; you really invest in the founders. You spend time with them, you grill them, you get a feel for their character. Companies are now applying this same logic to hiring. They’re de-risking the single biggest expense on their books; people.
Cartel Trend #3: From Gig Economy to Trust Economy
Here’s the economic and philosophical shift. The pandemic pushed us into a “gig economy of skills,” where talent was a fungible, location-independent commodity. Your value was a list of tools you could operate from your couch.
But the new trends—the in-office mandates, the work trials, the back-channeling—are pulling us back to a “relationship economy of trust.”
What matters now are the unverifiable qualities that can only be assessed through direct interaction: loyalty, grit, communication, and cultural alignment.
The talent war isn’t about skills as much as it is about cultural affiliation. The companies that are winning are the ones that can attract and retain talent by offering a sense of shared purpose, a high-trust environment, and a seat at the table of a powerful network.
If you can’t offer those things, you need to pay a lot more for talent – Thank you The Zuck for recently proving this to us all.
Cartel Trend #4: Incoming Fallout
Yes, it’s worth mentioning the obvious negative effects of a hiring Cartel.
- The reinforcement of privilege: Creates a homogenous talent bubble
- The access gap: The requirement for in-person interviews, extended work trials, 5 (sometimes 5+) days in the office creates an immediate barrier for talent from outside major cities.
- Homogeneity over diversity: Deep back-channeling, while effective for cultural fit, can lead to groupthink.
- Hustle over wellness: There is a strong return to “hustle culture” which will lead to burnout… Spoiler alert: a lot of new founders don’t care.
Overall, this isn’t just a pivot in hiring; it’s a regression to the mean. The market is correcting for the ‘over-indexed’ flexibility of the past, accelerated by the need to lead the AI race within one’s industry.
Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
I’d argue net-good, because of the amount of new companies being created and the employment opportunities that follow.
Whatever your opinion (and I’d love to hear yours), the rules have changed, and the new players don’t care if you’re comfortable or not.
